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Seed scarcity has emerged as a critical challenge in Sri Lanka’s paddy sector, particularly during peak cultivation seasons, as it directly affects timely planting, production efficiency, and the economic stability of smallholder farmers. Limited access to affordable and quality seed paddy often forces farmers to delay cultivation, switch varieties, or reuse inferior seeds, thereby increasing production risk and income instability. Against this backdrop, this study examined how seasonal farming patterns and paddy variety preferences influence seed scarcity and economic stability among paddy farmers in the Ganewaththa Divisional Secretariat of the Kurunegala District, Sri Lanka. Guided by the Cobweb Theory, the research explains how farmers’ reliance on previous-season price signals and delayed supply responses generate cyclical patterns of seed shortages, oversupply, and price instability. A quantitative cross-sectional research design was employed, with primary data collected from 70 randomly selected paddy farmers cultivating between 2 and 5 acres of land using a structured questionnaire covering demographic characteristics, seasonal cultivation practices, variety selection, seed access, and price-based decision-making. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, correlation analysis, and multiple regression. The results revealed that 100% of farmers cultivated paddy in both Maha and Yala seasons, while 78.6% predominantly used hybrid varieties. High yield was identified as the primary determinant of variety selection by 98.6% of farmers, followed by market price and short crop duration. Seed access difficulties were reported by 78.6% of respondents, mainly due to high seed prices (41.4%) and poor seed quality (38.6%). Regression analysis indicated a very weak and statistically non-significant relationship between variety selection factors and farmers’ stated top priorities (R² = 0.004, p > 0.05). However, chi-square analysis revealed statistically significant relationships between seed-access difficulties and income instability, as well as between delayed cultivation and economic instability (p < 0.05). In addition, 82.9% of farmers reported that previous-season prices influenced their variety choices, 71.4% changed varieties frequently, and 87.1% relied on government price schemes, demonstrating strong price-reactive behavior consistent with Cobweb dynamics. These findings indicate that yield-focused and price-responsive decision-making, combined with high seed prices, poor seed quality, and delayed cultivation, contributes to recurring seed scarcity and income instability among paddy farmers. The study therefore recommends strengthening certified seed production and distribution, improving market and price forecasting mechanisms, and enhancing extension services to support informed decision-making and promote sustainable paddy cultivation and economic resilience.
